{ "dataset": "us-recession-indicators", "title": "US recession indicators, monthly", "source": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)", "sourceUrl": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/", "licence": "Underlying series are public domain. Not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.", "updated": "2026-08-16", "attribution": "Economicium (economicium.com), from the source named above.", "data": { "note": "US recession indicators from public-domain FRED series. The \"signals active\" count is an editorial tally of well-known indicators against conventional thresholds, not a forecast or proprietary index.", "source": "Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)", "disclaimer": "This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.", "fetchedAt": "2026-08-16", "activeCount": 0, "countedTotal": 5, "spreads": { "s10y2y": 0.51, "s10y3m": 0.82, "asOf": "2026-08-14" }, "indicators": [ { "id": "sahm", "name": "Sahm Rule", "current": -0.03, "asOf": "2026-07", "unit": "pp", "threshold": 0.5, "thresholdLabel": "≥ 0.50 pp", "active": false, "counted": true, "history": [ [ "2000-01-01", -0.03 ], [ "2000-02-01", 0 ], [ "2000-03-01", 0 ], [ "2000-04-01", -0.03 ], [ "2000-05-01", 0 ], [ "2000-06-01", -0.03 ], [ "2000-07-01", 0.03 ], [ "2000-08-01", 0.03 ], [ "2000-09-01", 0 ], [ "2000-10-01", -0.03 ], [ "2000-11-01", -0.03 ], [ "2000-12-01", 0.03 ], [ "2001-01-01", 0.13 ], [ "2001-02-01", 0.2 ], [ 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It has flagged every recession since 1970 with few false alarms, though it confirms a downturn rather than predicting one." }, { "id": "curve", "name": "Yield curve (10y minus 3m)", "current": 0.82, "asOf": "2026-08", "unit": "%", "threshold": 0, "thresholdLabel": "inverted (< 0)", "active": false, "counted": true, "history": [ [ "2000-01-01", 0.92 ], [ "2000-02-01", 0.64 ], [ "2000-03-01", 0.15 ], [ "2000-04-01", 0.41 ], [ "2000-05-01", 0.66 ], [ "2000-06-01", 0.15 ], [ "2000-07-01", -0.23 ], [ "2000-08-01", -0.58 ], [ "2000-09-01", -0.43 ], [ "2000-10-01", -0.61 ], [ "2000-11-01", -0.73 ], [ "2000-12-01", -0.77 ], [ "2001-01-01", 0.2 ], [ "2001-02-01", 0.07 ], [ "2001-03-01", 0.63 ], [ "2001-04-01", 1.4 ], [ "2001-05-01", 1.8 ], [ "2001-06-01", 1.77 ], [ "2001-07-01", 1.53 ], [ "2001-08-01", 1.48 ], [ "2001-09-01", 2.2 ], [ "2001-10-01", 2.25 ], [ "2001-11-01", 3 ], [ "2001-12-01", 3.33 ], [ "2002-01-01", 3.31 ], [ "2002-02-01", 3.09 ], [ "2002-03-01", 3.63 ], [ "2002-04-01", 3.34 ], 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The level matters less than the direction: unemployment turning up off a cycle low is the classic early tell, which is exactly what the Sahm Rule formalises." }, "nber": [ [ "2001-04-01", "2001-12-01" ], [ "2008-01-01", "2009-07-01" ], [ "2020-03-01", "2020-05-01" ] ], "nberAll": [ { "start": "1854-12", "end": "1854-12", "months": 1 }, { "start": "1857-07", "end": "1858-12", "months": 18 }, { "start": "1860-11", "end": "1861-06", "months": 8 }, { "start": "1865-05", "end": "1867-12", "months": 32 }, { "start": "1869-07", "end": "1870-12", "months": 18 }, { "start": "1873-11", "end": "1879-03", "months": 65 }, { "start": "1882-04", "end": "1885-05", "months": 38 }, { "start": "1887-04", "end": "1888-04", "months": 13 }, { "start": "1890-08", "end": "1891-05", "months": 10 }, { "start": "1893-02", "end": "1894-06", "months": 17 }, { "start": "1896-01", "end": "1897-06", "months": 18 }, { "start": "1899-07", "end": "1900-12", "months": 18 }, { "start": "1902-10", "end": "1904-08", "months": 23 }, { "start": "1907-06", "end": "1908-06", "months": 13 }, { "start": "1910-02", "end": "1912-01", "months": 24 }, { "start": "1913-02", "end": "1914-12", "months": 23 }, { "start": "1918-09", "end": "1919-03", "months": 7 }, { "start": "1920-02", "end": "1921-07", "months": 18 }, { "start": "1923-06", "end": "1924-07", "months": 14 }, { "start": "1926-11", "end": "1927-11", "months": 13 }, { "start": "1929-09", "end": "1933-03", "months": 43 }, { "start": "1937-06", "end": "1938-06", "months": 13 }, { "start": "1945-03", "end": "1945-10", "months": 8 }, { "start": "1948-12", "end": "1949-10", "months": 11 }, { "start": "1953-08", "end": "1954-05", "months": 10 }, { "start": "1957-09", "end": "1958-04", "months": 8 }, { "start": "1960-05", "end": "1961-02", "months": 10 }, { "start": "1970-01", "end": "1970-11", "months": 11 }, { "start": "1973-12", "end": "1975-03", "months": 16 }, { "start": "1980-02", "end": "1980-07", "months": 6 }, { "start": "1981-08", "end": "1982-11", "months": 16 }, { "start": "1990-08", "end": "1991-03", "months": 8 }, { "start": "2001-04", "end": "2001-11", "months": 8 }, { "start": "2008-01", "end": "2009-06", "months": 18 }, { "start": "2020-03", "end": "2020-04", "months": 2 } ] } }