The US national debt since 2005

The number that actually matters

A big absolute figure is easy to wave away, because the economy is bigger too. The honest gauge is debt against the size of the economy, and there the picture is harder to dismiss: the debt is now 124.5% of GDP, up from well under 70% before the 2008 crisis. Two events did most of the lifting, and you can see both in the chart, the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 pandemic response, when the government borrowed heavily to cushion collapses in demand. Neither was reversed afterward; the debt stepped up and stayed up.

The constraint that will decide how much this matters is interest. The government now pays about $1.22 trillion a year to service the debt, roughly 3.8% of GDP, and that bill rises with both the debt and the level of rates. The yield on Treasuries is set in the same market this site tracks; when rates are higher, each dollar of debt costs more to carry. That is the link between the policy rate, the yield curve and this chart.

A caveat. Gross debt includes money the government owes itself through trust funds, so the "held by the public" figure is the one economists usually weigh. And a rising debt is not automatically a crisis; it depends on growth, rates and who holds it. This is the record, not a verdict. For the live figure updating in real time, see the national debt clock.