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US Yield Curve Tracker

The Treasury yield curve, its two most-watched recession spreads, and whether either is inverted right now, straight from official Federal Reserve data.

By , founder and editorUpdated

Is the US yield curve inverted right now?

No

Neither the 10Y-2Y (+0.34%) nor the 10Y-3M (+0.76%) spread is inverted; the curve is upward-sloping.

Based on the 10Y−2Y and 10Y−3M Treasury spreads, to 2026-07-23.

10Y − 2Y spread

+0.34%

Normal

10Y − 3M spread

+0.76%

Normal

10Y − 2Y spread, five years

Below the zero line = inverted. Yields: 3M … · 2Y … · 10Y …

Why traders watch this

Normally long-term Treasuries yield more than short-term ones. When that flips, an "inversion", it means markets expect rate cuts ahead, historically because a slowdown is coming: the 10Y−3M spread has inverted before eight of the last nine US recessions, usually with a lead of a year or so. The spread is simply the 10-year yield minus the shorter yield; a reading of −0.50 means the short end pays half a point more than the long end.

Two honest caveats. Inversions are early, and the recession often lands only after the curve has already un-inverted, so the signal is about the cycle, not about timing trades. And a signal this famous is watched by everyone, so it is context, not an edge on its own. For the full track record, see every inversion since 2000 and what followed.

Method and limitations

Spreads are computed as DGS10 − DGS2 and DGS10 − DGS3MO from the Fed's constant-maturity series. Data is fetched on a schedule by our server and cached; your visit never queries an upstream API. FRED publishes one value per business day, so the latest point can lag a day.

This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Data sources

For general information and education only. This is not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Trading and investing carry risk, including the risk of losing more than your initial outlay. Always verify figures against your broker or the original source before acting on them.

Spotted an error? Email[email protected]and it will be corrected. Maintained byJoey van Diest.