Yield curve inversions since 2000, and what followed

Why traders watch it

Normally a 10-year Treasury yields more than a 3-month bill, because lending for longer carries more risk. When that flips, the market is pricing rate cuts ahead, usually because it expects the economy to slow. The 10Y-3M spread has inverted before every US recession since the 1960s, which is why it is the single most-watched recession signal. The record above is why it earned that reputation: the 2000, 2006-07 and 2019 inversions were each followed by a recession within a year or two.

The honest caveats

Two things the headline version leaves out. First, the signal is early and imprecise: the lead time from inversion to recession has ranged widely, and the curve often un-inverts before the downturn actually begins, so a return to positive is not an all-clear. Second, and more awkward for the famous version of this chart, the 2022-2024 inversion was the longest and deepest in this sample, and as of Jul 2026 it has not been followed by a dated recession. Either the recession is still coming with an unusually long lead, or this was the false signal that a small sample of postwar cycles was always going to produce eventually. Both readings are live; the chart cannot tell you which.

Watch it as context, not a timer. For the live spread and whether the curve is inverted right now, use the yield curve tracker, and see it alongside the other signals on the recession indicators dashboard.